24hrlib
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« on: May 26, 2008, 05:25:08 pm » |
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In the beginning I thought it was weird that the polls show Obama leading Hillary among Democrats, yet, when they are both individually matched against McCain, Hillary comes out ahead in most polls. Go figure. I figured the Republicans and Independents favor Hillary Clinton more. That was the only explanation. And, it portends for the General Election as to which one could win the White House back.
However, the two measures use different populations. The Obama-Clinton polls sample only Democrats. The match-ups against McCain poll all registered voters. The obvious conclusion: Clinton does better than Obama does among Independents and Republicans. Which is a big switch since the beginning of this campaign season when Obama lead in these groups.
Anyway, about a week ago, in Gallup's daily tracking polls, Barack Obama led Hillary Clinton 55-39%, the largest margin between the two contenders in months. Since then, Obama has steadily declined in the polls to 50%, while Clinton has steadily risen to 45%, leaing a current margin of only five points. Rasmussen, although its polling never showed the large margin shown in Gallup, shows Obama at the same 50% with Clinton at 44%. That margin had been up to eight points a few days ago.
Both Gallup and Rasmussen show Clinton ahead of John McCain while McCain leads Obama. This information coincides with the electoral-vote.com maps I recently shared on another thread. The margins, respectively, are in the 2-3 point range each way.
We won't know 'til reports from Tuesday and later whether or not Clinton's RFK remark will have a significant effect on the polls. If it does, I don't expect the effect to last more than a few days. It, too, shall pass.
Interesting thought...the backlash the Obama Campaign is receiving by putting the Clinton remark out there for the press to pounce on. May in turn effect that campaign as well. However, I'm not holding my breath.
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